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Road to election win not all that certain for PCs, according to Wilfrid Laurier poll

WLU/Handout

With the provincial election just over two weeks away, the result is as uncertain as ever.

A recent poll out of Wilfrid Laurier University has the PCs at 38 per cent support, just five percentage points ahead of the surging New Democrats at 33 per cent.

The Liberals sit at 23 per cent.

This, as another couple polls have the NDP neck-and-neck with the Progressive Conservatives with the Liberals trailing behind.

“The algorithm we’ve used suggests that the Conservatives are now at about 69 seats,” Dr. Barry Kay, a political science professor at Laurier, tells The Jennifer Campbell Show. “We had them up in the 80 range just a couple of weeks ago.”

By comparison, that same LISPOP algorithm has the NDP at 39 seats and the Liberals at 16.

Kay says there’s some uncertainty in if the PC’s will be able to form a majority government, with the NDP has sustained momentum over the last little while.

“The next set of polls may make it a little bit closer,” he adds.

As for Kathleen Wynne and the Liberals, Kay says while they’ll likely hold some of their seats, he doesn’t see them coming back.

But sticking with that uncertainty, he says people aren’t all that confident in PC Leader Doug Ford either.

And with all that, it’s given the NDP a shot, comparing this year’s election to 1990 when Bob Rae’s New Democrats formed a majority government.

“It happened because both the Conservatives and Liberals in those days were viewed very negatively,” Kay says. “That seems to be the circumstance now, that’s put the NDP in the position to at least get close to office.

“I’m not suggesting that they’re going to get the largest number of seats, that doesn’t seem likely. But if they can hold the Conservatives short of 63 seats, we’re going to have an interesting legislature where there will be a minority government.”

Kay says we don’t want to get too ahead of ourselves right now. But he says when we get to election night, the question will be if the PC’s can reach the seats needed to get a majority.

Kay predicts the Progressive Conservatives will take hold of every seat in Waterloo Region, except for Waterloo, where he says Catherine Fife (NDP) is “in good shape” to return to Queen’s Park.