SportsNOW blog: Will the Blue Jays make the playoffs this season?
Posted Jul 13, 2016 12:37:01 PM.
Last Updated Jul 14, 2016 10:37:50 AM.
This article is more than 5 years old.
Now that Major League Baseball’s unofficial first half has arrived, a number of things have become abundantly clear around the league. The division champs in the National League are already all but decided. The Chicago Cubs have a 7.0 game lead in the Central. The San Francisco Giants lead the West by a full 6.5 games and the Washington Nationals have a 6.0 game bulge over their closest competitors in the East. Are the races over? No. Are they close? Yes. In the American League the story is a bit different. While the Texas Rangers in the West (5.5 game lead) and the Cleveland Indians in the Central (6.5 game lead) are looking good, the leader of the AL East is far from decided at the halfway point. The Baltimore Orioles currently occupy that spot and despite being a relatively consistent team over their first 87 games not too many people feel that the division is theirs to lose. They have a 2.0 game lead over both the Boston Red Sox (who have surprised all of baseball) and the Blue Jays who in many ways have been equally surprising thus far. But the ultimate question remains. With just 75 games to go this season – will the Blue Jays make the playoffs this season? Only 2 options exist and before I tell you what I think WILL happen – here’s what COULD happen.
The Blue Jays WILL MAKE the playoffs if: The way the first half ended – continues in the second half. So far, a lot of things have gone right for the Jays. Their starting pitching has been nothing short of a revelation through the first half and that despite the fact that it was considered one of the club’s main areas for concern coming out of spring training. In fact, as an overall staff the Jays have the 2nd best ERA (3.76) in the American League behind only the Central-leading Indians (3.63). They’ve given up the 3rd fewest hits in the AL behind only Cleveland and the defending champion Royals and the 3rd fewest runs behind only the Indians and Astros. They’re also second only to the Indians staff in opponent batting average as opposing hitters are hitting just .242 against Blue Jay hurlers thus far. For a team whose pitching staff was supposed to struggle…those are impressive numbers. Defensively the Jays have been as-advertised. They are currently the best fielding team in the American League with a team fielding percentage of .988 and that’s despite missing one of the league’s best defensive shortstops in Troy Tulowitzki for an extended stretch. Oh and let’s not forget about the offence. After struggling through a head-scratch worthy April which saw them hit .232 as a team with 232 strikeouts, things have been quite different of late. In May they hit 20 points higher than that (.243), then added another 20 points to their average in June (.263). As for the month of July they’ve been tearing the cover off the ball. So far this month they are hitting .302 as a team (T-3rd in AL), with 15 home runs (3rd in AL), and 64 runs scored (3rd in AL) while collecting an AL-leading 113 hits in just 10 July games. Suffice to say the bats have come around and a lot of those July numbers have been without the bat of Jose Bautista in their lineup. If this team maintains the status quo and remains healthy – they are a playoff team.
The Blue Jays WILL MISS the playoffs if: The bubble bursts on the starting pitching and a couple of key guys get hurt. First on the injury front. While this Blue Jays team has shown impressive resilience to losing key players for significant stretches (Bautista, Tulowitzki) they have been relatively healthy. If however, Bautista’s injury is of a longer term nature and either Josh Donaldson, Michael Saunders or Edwin Encarnacion are hurt for any significant amount of time this club just doesn’t have the depth to overcome it. Having said that – if the team is lucky enough to have injuries happen to top players at separate times (ie: Tulowitzki came back from his DL stint just as Bautista began his) then their depth is likely good enough to tread water and not lose a lot of ground. BUT, and it’s a BIG but, as it is currently constituted – this is NOT a team that can overcome a significant injury to one of its starters. With Aaron Sanchez headed to the bullpen at some point, they are already going to need to fill that hole with someone from Buffalo (likely Drew Hutchison) or the bullpen (likely Jesse Chavez). If one of either Marcus Stroman, R.A. Dickey or J.A. Happ get hurt – this team is in serious trouble. I failed to mention Marco Estrada in that group because he’s ALREADY dealing with an injury and it’s one that has bothered him for some time. The fact that the injury is back-related gives me cause for concern as well and if he’s out for a stretch in the second half – all those wonderful pitching stats I quoted in the above paragraph will take significant turns for the worse. Add to that the fact that this starting rotation has been pitching so well in the first half that it’s almost guaranteed to come back down to earth in a big way after the break. Can they keep it going? Perhaps. But, a look into the numbers shows you how hard it may be for Dickey, Happ, Estrada, Sanchez and Stroman to do just that. Blue Jay starters have accounted for 41 wins (2nd highest in the majors), have the 5th lowest ERA in the majors at 3.64 and perhaps the most impressive stat – they lead the major leagues with 579.1 innings pitched – a full 17 innings ahead of 2nd place San Francisco. If that bubble bursts and they don’t stay healthy – the playoffs will be nothing but a pipe dream for the 2016 Blue Jays.
So what’s the answer? YES. All things being equal (and we all know they are not) the Blue Jays have shown me enough in the month and a half leading up to the All-Star break that they are indeed the team they were last season – at least at the plate. The Jays have an offence that can compete with any team in baseball. Defensively – same deal. Their bullpen is starting to come around and their starting rotation has been very good. Even if the starting 5 come back to earth a bit, the lineup that Manager John Gibbons gets to fill out every day is beyond lethal. If the Jays (like every other team in pro sports) can avoid significant injury to a key piece – especially in the rotation – they are indeed poised to play ball in October for the 2nd consecutive season. How far they will go is something for a future blog.
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